Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Are You Ready for Some Football?

The 2010 NFL season officially starts tomorrow night. I am so excited! The Red Sox can no longer catch up (though I’ve officially jumped off the bandwagon back in April). Now it's time for the real men to come out and play.

Before any games have been played, I wanted to share some thoughts and maybe some predictions.

First off, I think the Jets are the most overrated team in the league. Experts keep picking them to win the AFC East and go to the Super Bowl. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the Pats won the division last year and 7 of the past 9 years. The Jets haven’t proven anything yet.

As for the Pats, let’s start with the offense. Tom Brady is poised to put up huge numbers again. He is two years removed from his major knee injury. He has a few new TEs which should help score in the red zone. He also has a new deal which I’m really happy about for several reasons. 1) It makes Tom Brady the highest paid player in the league (at least until Manning gets his new deal) and he definitely deserves it. He took significantly less money in his previous contract to help spread the wealth for other players but it was embarrassing how underpaid he was compared to other elite QBs. It was about time he got paid like one. 2) It shows the Pats are willing to spend on top quality talent. There is a misconception that the Patriots do not pay their players. That’s simply not true. They just try not to OVER-pay anyone. Hopefully future free agents will take note and will consider New England as a destination. 3) Anything can happen on any given Sunday. Brady was severely injured in the first series of the first game back in 2008. Having this deal in place before the start of the regular season opener should definitely put his mind at ease.

Speaking of TEs, I am really pleased with the new trio of TEs: Crumpler, Gronkowski, and Hernandez. Crumpler is a punishing run blocker. Gronkowski also is a good in-line blocker, runs the seam route well, and is a huge target in the end zone. Hernandez is smaller than the other two but is a much more pass-catching threat. He has the ability to line up all over the field and cause havoc for opposing defenses. He definitely reminds me of Dallas Clark of the Colts.

The OL is hurt by losing the presence of Logan Mankins. They will be decent in pass protection but they have absolutely no attitude in the running game. I would love to have tough OL that just punch the ball into the end zone each time. I would love it if they could run the ball effectively and go on long, sustained time-killing drives. It would restore balance to the offensive play-calling. But the Pats’ offense isn’t built that way. They will eventually revert back to the pass-happy offense and it might hurt them when other teams ignore the running threat and just play the pass.

As for the WRs, Randy Moss is complaining about a new deal. But he’s in a contract year and he has always played well in contract years. So I hope he plays hard all year and the front office can reward him with a new 3-year, $27 million contract toward the end of the season.

I’m glad to have Welker back this soon. He doesn’t look quite as explosive or shifty as he has in the past but that’s expected after a major knee injury. Hopefully the knee will continue to improve along with his mobility as he sheds his knee brace.

Edelman has looked great in limited preseason action. He looks like he can help offset some of Welker’s productivity while Welker continues to recover. The only concern is that Edelman already has a bit of an injury history so hopefully he can play smart and avoid taking on too many unnecessary hits.

I am not impressed with our group of RBs. It’s the same cast as last year. The top two RBs (Taylor and Morris) are in their 30s and have not made it through an entire season for some time. Maroney still dances too much and will drive everyone insane again this year.

As for the defense, I think it will be slightly better than it was last year. Statistically, the Pats' defense was better than expected last year. They ranked 5th in points allowed per game and that should carry over this year. Some dead weight (Burgess and Thomas) are gone so that instantly improves things.

On the DL, losing Ty Warren was a huge blow. I’m not sure the DEs on either side of Wilfork would be able to hold up at the point of attack. Gerard Warren will definitely need to step up.

At ILBs, Mayo and Spikes both look very slow. It looks like Mayo lost a step after last year's knee injury and doesn't seem to have the same burst from his rookie year. Mayo has great instincts but he struggles badly in coverage. If he doesn't improve in this area, their opponents will dink and dunk their way down the field on each possession.

I have no clue where our pass rush will come from. Banta-Cain seems too eager to jump the snap count and often leaves himself out of position to set the edge. Speaking of “setting the edge”, Burgess definitely couldn’t get the job done so he was cut. I have no idea who will start at that spot.

Lastly in the secondary, losing Bodden was also rough. I’m not sure Butler is quite ready to take his place. McCourty has looked pretty good so far so we’ll see how it goes. Meriweather looks to build on another good year and hopefully he’ll grow into the Troy Polamalu rover type player who patrols the field. Chung also adds some athleticism and toughness so hopefully he can bring the lumber this year.

There are a lot of question marks on this 2010 Patriots team. Can Brady/Moss return to their 2007 form? Will the OL be able to keep Tom upright and create holes in the run game? Can Welker bounce back from a major knee injury?

Can the defense make up for several key injuries? Where will the pass rush come from? Will the front-7 be able to stop the run? Will the young secondary be able to keep up with high-powered offenses? Can the defense get key stops and to get off the field? It will be a very interesting year.

Considering the injuries to several key starters and a very brutal schedule, my prediction is the Patriots will win their division and finish with a regular season record of 10-6. Go Pats!

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